[DEVELOPING] AI infra credit under scrutiny: Oracle $523B RPO backlog vs a ~$50B debt raise, circular-financing fears
The AI buildout's financing loop (Nvidia invests in OpenAI, OpenAI signs a ~$300B Oracle cloud deal, Oracle buys Nvidia chips) keeps drawing scrutiny, with Oracle carrying a ~$523B remaining-performance-obligation backlog against plans to raise ~$50B of 2026 debt and headline AI commitments (~$1.4T) dwarfing OpenAI's ~$20B revenue; the IMF warned in July that frothy AI valuations could correct sharply. The read for the desk is that levered infra and private-AI marks are the fragile link, which is the deleveraging channel behind ARKK's demote to watch this run.