[FLASH] Big Tech keeps ~$300B of AI-infra exposure off balance sheets via guarantees; Morgan Stanley counts $3.1T
A Financial Times investigation published Sept 20 reports Big Tech has issued as much as ~$300B of residual-value guarantees over the past year to finance AI data centres and chips while booking little of it as debt, with Morgan Stanley tallying more than $3.1T of broader off-balance-sheet commitments across seven hyperscalers and chipmakers. The named mechanics: Alphabet's data-centre lease guarantees rose from $16.9B to $43.8B in six months with under 2% hitting its balance sheet (Fluidstack/TPU-to-Anthropic structure, ~$815M probable-loss booking); Meta's ~$28B Hyperion guarantee backs ~$27B of Blue Owl-led debt; Nvidia extended ~$105B tied to SoftBank's SB Energy Ohio campus with little liability recorded until leases start ~2028. These are contingent, disclosed and permitted under current accounting, so the figures are tallies of programmes, not audited liabilities; the observation for the tape is that a large share of AI-buildout financial weight now sits in footnotes rather than on the ratios screens read automatically, sharpening the capital-quality question already visible in this month's AI-credit repricing.