[DEVELOPING] Fed hikes 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, first increase since 2023, and the dot plot points to another this year
The FOMC voted 12-0 on Sept 16 to raise the target range to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike in over three years, citing stubborn energy-driven inflation (projected PCE 3.7% in 2026); 16 of 18 participants now pencil in at least one more hike. Counter to the pre-meeting scare, the 10-year yield pulled back to ~4.95% on the decision as the priced-in move was confirmed and the front end did the work. Higher-for-longer still compresses the terminal-value-heavy AI-infrastructure and long-duration software names hardest, so the cross-current for every conviction call on the board is whether a second 2026 hike gets priced; watch the next CPI and Fed-speak for that signal.