[UPDATE] Fed's first hike since 2023 keeps long yields elevated; higher-for-longer weighs on AI credit and duration
The FOMC's Sept 16 move to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike in over three years with a dot plot pointing to one more in 2026, has bedded in without derailing equities, but long yields stayed firm -- the 10-year briefly topped 5% and the 20-year reached ~5.40% around the SoftBank/OpenAI funding news. Higher-for-longer hits terminal-value-heavy AI-infrastructure and long-duration software hardest, and it now compounds the AI-credit strain visible in discounted data-center loans. The standing cross-current for every conviction call is whether a second 2026 hike gets priced; watch the next CPI and Fed-speak.