[DEVELOPING] Gartner: $3.5T of AI infrastructure spend could face impairment by 2030; most neoclouds seen consolidating
A Gartner report covered by The Register and heise estimates that AI data center operators would need about $8.5T in cumulative revenue by 2030 to cover planned capex, financing and a 12% return. Gartner forecasts only about $3.6T of attributable AI revenue over that period, puts about $3.5T of assets at risk of impairment, and expects more than 80% of neocloud providers to stop operating independently by 2030. The forecast landed on the same day as the CoreWeave credit selloff and centers on GPU-as-a-service providers that depend on AI IaaS margins. To watch: neocloud M&A or consolidation, and whether hyperscalers mention asset write-down risk in upcoming earnings.