[DEVELOPING] 10-year Treasury at 5.05%, highest since 2007, after the strongest flash PMI since 2021; October hike odds jump to 73%
Reuters reported the 10-year yield rose 8.7bp to 5.054% on Sep 23, its highest since 2007, after the S&P Global flash composite PMI printed 58.4 vs 56.0 expected, the strongest since July 2021. The 2-year reached 4.862%; the Dow fell 0.18%, the S&P 500 0.53% and the Nasdaq 1.05%. Fed funds futures moved October hike odds from 53% to 73%, and Governor Barr said further hikes are likely. Read-through: a 5% risk-free rate is a discount-rate headwind for long-duration AI capex names and raises the cost of the debt funding data-center builds (see Oracle item). Watch: Friday's PCE print and whether the 10-year holds above 5% into month-end.